How We Got Here — the walk-forward report
The past-decade run is a test that the model works, run in walk-forward form (point-in-time, only facts filed by each date, survivorship-aware universes). It does not dictate today's picks — the scoreboard is an independent current pass. These two layers are compared only afterwards.
What the walk-forward showed (2011-2018, archive universe)
76
missed runner
missed runner
44
CAUGHT EARLY - big run
CAUGHT EARLY - big run
21
caught - ran
caught - ran
10
caught - didn't run
caught - didn't run
2
caught - ran (late)
caught - ran (late)
Headline: the quality-grower top bucket beat the equal-weight market in
every cohort at 10 years — NVDA +63,163%, KLAC +8,351%, MSFT +2,301%, AMAT, CTAS, COST, AMP,
AMGN, DE. On the survivorship-reduced archive universe the top-quintile returned ~14x vs ~5.6x
market (+865pp, 4 of 5 cohorts). The 12-month "no edge" is real and persists. The one strong-signal
false positive on record is TripAdvisor (5/5 at the 2013 catch, then -87%) — kept visible, not hidden.
Full retrospective table — best bets first, cut at the middling tail
| Ticker | Sector | First top | Catch /5 | Realized | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Information Tech | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| KLAC | Information Tech | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CTAS | Industrials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| TER | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MA | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| NFLX | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MSFT | Information Tech | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| V | Information Tech | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MCO | Financials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| COST | Consumer Staples | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MSI | Information Tech | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| NDAQ | Financials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| SHW | Consumer Discret | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MCK | Health Care | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| UNH | Health Care | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| TMO | Health Care | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| GILD | Health Care | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| VRSN | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| SNA | Consumer Discret | 2014 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| UNP | Industrials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| WMT | Consumer Staples | 2014 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CSCO | Information Tech | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CME | Financials | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| SBUX | Consumer Discret | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| ADBE | Information Tech | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MRK | Health Care | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| NSC | Industrials | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| AON | Financials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| JNJ | Health Care | 2014 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CRM | Information Tech | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| HON | Industrials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| QCOM | Information Tech | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| PAYX | Information Tech | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| ORCL | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| PSA | Financials | 2014 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| NTAP | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| ACN | Information Tech | 2014 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MCD | Consumer Discret | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| SPG | Financials | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| BIIB | Health Care | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| T | Telecommunicatio | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| TXT | Industrials | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CL | Consumer Staples | 2014 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| FISV | Information Tech | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| GOOG | Information Tech | 2017 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| AMGN | Health Care | 2017 | 5/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| JCI | Consumer Discret | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| EBAY | Information Tech | 2017 | 3/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| RSG | Industrials | 2015 | 5/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| NI | Utilities | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| ICE | Financials | 2016 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| WEC | Utilities | 2017 | 5/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| BSX | Health Care | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| LEN | Consumer Discret | 2016 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| UNM | Financials | 2017 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| PPG | Materials | 2017 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| CMCSA | Consumer Discret | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| VZ | Telecommunicatio | 2012 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| TROW | Financials | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| IBM | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| OMC | Consumer Discret | 2012 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| AN | Consumer Discret | 2016 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| HPQ | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| IVZ | Financials | 2014 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| AKAM | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| WM | Industrials | 2018 | 4/5 | caught - ran (late) | caught - ran (late) |
| LH | Health Care | 2018 | 4/5 | caught - ran (late) | caught - ran (late) |
| FCX | Materials | 2018 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| BEN | Financials | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| BWA | Consumer Discret | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| BXP | Financials | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| SLB | Energy | 2013 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| TDC | Information Tech | 2012 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| CCL | Consumer Discret | 2017 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| FMC | Materials | 2012 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| NWL | Consumer Discret | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| TRIP | Consumer Discret | 2013 | 5/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| LLY | Health Care | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AMAT | Information Tech | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| MPC | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PHM | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PGR | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| TJX | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| DHI | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CAT | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| HD | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| JPM | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| NOC | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AMP | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| GWW | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| DE | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| MAR | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| SUN | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ALL | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| MS | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| TRV | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AIZ | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ADP | Information Tech | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| NEE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CSX | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CAH | Health Care | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| OKE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CINF | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| HUM | Health Care | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| WMB | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CB | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| SCHW | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| GD | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| NRG | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| VMC | Materials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| HIG | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AEE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AEP | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PFG | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PNC | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| COF | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AFL | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ATI | Materials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| STT | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CMS | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| DTE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| YUM | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ETR | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| BAC | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PCAR | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| XEL | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| GE | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| SRE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| FDX | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| NTRS | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| EOG | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CVX | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| SO | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| EXPD | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| COP | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| DUK | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| TGT | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ADM | Consumer Staples | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CNP | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| IR | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| KEY | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| MET | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ED | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PEG | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| LUV | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CVS | Consumer Staples | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| C | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| USB | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PRU | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| R | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| BA | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AIV | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| HAS | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
'Realized' = return from the scoreboard period start to the latest price. Every number recomputes from SEC filings; machine-readable record: picklog.json.